“Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are priced to deliver return-free risk”” Shelby Cullom Davis The above quote serves as a stark reminder of the long-held belief that the bond market knows better. Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, echoed a similar sentiment in his 2012 letter about the prospects of so-called risk-free bonds. Lo … Market Insights: 20/10/2023
“Things are seldom what they seem, skim milk masquerades as cream.” W. S. Gilbert Seems like the adage “anything that can go wrong will go wrong” has been turned upside down by Mr. Market. Despite rising interest rates YTD, US equity market has continued to climb a wall of worry. Central banks’ data dependence, declining … Market Insights: 10/08/2023
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine” Ben Graham As the narrative of human subservience to artificial intelligence has gained traction, speculation is ripe that Tech sector will be the main beneficiary and earn abnormal profits. However enough has been written already … Market Insights: 06/06/2023
“If one tries too hard to be precise, one runs the risk of being so narrow as to be irrelevant” R. J. Shiller Conflicting signals from “equity vs bond” market and “actual vs survey” data has many investors confused. So elusive is the nature of this cycle that only time will tell what the market … Market Insights: 15/05/2023
“You think you understand ‘one’, you must also understand ‘two’, because one and one makes two. But you must also understand ‘and’” Rumi This 12th century mystic poet may well have written the above quote on behalf of the uncanny Mr. Market, “the wisdom of crowds1”, because who could have conceived that amid a banking … Market Insights: 06/04/2023
“Stand by me nobody knows the way it’s gonna be” Failure of Tech friendly banks – Silicon Valley & Signature – and demise of private banking crown jewels – First Republic Bank & Credit Suisse – sent shockwaves through the global banking system instilling fears of a contagion. Nobody knows how this film “Bank Run … Market Insights: 20/03/2023
“Risk means more things can happen than will happen” Elory Dimson The above quote is a tell-tale sign for pessimists that history has sided more often with optimists. That said, reasonable risk compensation matters and in our latest market insights, we will try to do just that i.e. eke out the elusive equity risk premium. … Market Insights: 15/02/2023
“The future is already here; it’s just unevenly distributed” William Gibson Usually, we find this famous quote by a speculative fiction author and often used by “inventors” apt for “markets” too. However, at this juncture, it seems that the future is now looking rather evenly distributed in the market, especially equities. In the build-up to … Market Insights: 3/02/2023
Gong Ci Fa Xai! In our last market commentary, we highlighted that with improving global financial and growth conditions markets seem to be reaching an inflection point by transitioning from a recession to a global soft-landing scenario, but this same set up may also lead to higher-than-expected inflation, in turn causing the FED to hold … Market Insights: 25/01/2023
Looking back, it was a very tough year for markets with almost every long duration financial asset down on average 20% in dollar terms. Absent Santa rally, this year too was feared to be not so rosy but as we often forget, markets have an uncanny ability to price the expected and bring out the … Market Insights: 17/01/2023
